Do you lament missing out on investing in Apple when the stock was cheaper?
Do you wish you can go back in time to buy AAPL when it was undervalued?
SlashTraders will show you a technique to buy Apple stocks at a discount, even when AAPL is overvalued.
Why Do You Want to Invest in Apple Stocks?
Let's face it, so many people own iPhones now that there's no question which is the top-selling flagship smartphone brand.
The market share of iPhones and Apple products and the association of Apple products with celebrities and influencers are huge competitive advantages, or the moat, of Apple that other competitors struggle to compete with.
In short, Apple is a healthy and profitable company that has very low risk of bankrupcy, and Apple's market capitalisation shall continue to increase in value in the near future. Similar to TSMC and S&P 500 index ETF, SPY, AAPL is a great stock to invest in long term.
Recent Price Trend of AAPL
Since we want to hold on to value stocks for the long term, we want to analyse recent trends of AAPL to look for patterns in price changes.
We can tell from the AAPL chart in the last year, that 50-day, 100-day, 150-day and 200-day moving averages are all trending upwards. Even when Apple stock price fell a great deal around March 2020, the price recovered very quickly to the normal upward trajectory.
Even when the stock price fluctuated, AAPL would rebound after touching the 100-day moving average, so we can deduce the investors in general like to set stop losses around the 100-day moving average.
So we can be confident in the operation and financial strengths of Apple to invest in it for a long time.
How Much Is AAPL Worth?
The analysis of AAPL is as follows:
- 42.5% is based on the sales volume of iPhones
- 23.6% is based on software service, including App store, Apple TV, Apple Music and iCloud
- 14.9% is based on the sales volume of Apple Watches, Apple TVs and other accessories
- 7.8% is based on the sales volume of Macs and peripherals
- 6.3% is based on iPad sales volume
- Apple also has $84 billion in cash
If AAPL is only worth $100, while the current market price is $130, you might think it's too late to invest in Apple stocks.
Well, it depends how you trade.
Buy AAPL at a Discount With This Strategy
You can buy Apple stocks on the cheap if you trade in options.
We can sell a Put option at $100 to make sure we only purchase AAPL when it falls below $100.
A Put option is a contract to give the buyer the right to sell 100 units of a stock at the strike price before expiration.
By selling a Put option at $100 that expires in a month and a half, we can pocket 80 cents for the trade.
There is a 94% chance of AAPL remaining above $100 within a month and a half, so we know there is a high probability of this option expiring worthless, and we take the 80 cent profit.
If AAPL falls below $100 before the option expiration, the buyer of Put option can sell 100 units of stocks to us at $100, while our cost per unit of stock will be $99.20.
You'll quickly realise that you can continue to sell Put options with 45-day expiration indefinitely as long as AAPL stays high.
|Time||Cost per stock|
If we are patient, we can keep earning income from selling Put options until the Apple stock price falls to our desired level.
Most Undervalued Quality Stocks
Apart from AAPL, we can use the Bullish Value Stocks to find a list of financially strong companies that are currently undervalued.
The list shows both Shopify and Facebook are extremely undervalued right now. They are great companies with profitable software platforms and huge competitive advantages:
- Both companies have close to 100% Upside from their respective Fair Values.
- Plus the Long Signal Days indicator shows both stocks bottomed out last week.
So we can trade Cash Secured Put options to SHOP and FB to earn income from the premium while anticipating an upward rebound.
If the stock price drops, we have a chance to buy 100 shares of Shopify at $475.60, around 21% off the original price.
Meta's market price is currently around $200, a short Cash Secured Put at 0.20 delta, $175, that expires next month will receive $3.60 in premium per share.
If the stock price drops, we have an opportunity to buy 100 shares of FB at $171.40, around 14% off the original price.
Both Cash Secured Put trades give us the opportunities to buy stocks at a discount. Apart from the differences in discounts, we also notice the differences in cash buying power required for the two trades.
|Stocks||Discount on stock||Cash needed|
The SHOP trade requires $47,560 of cash to secure each Put option contract. While the FB Cash Secured Put option requires $17,140 of buying power per contract.
Now is your turn to try the strategy we discussed today. Please leave a message below if you want me to analyse other popular stocks.