{"id":9263,"date":"2023-02-08T19:31:34","date_gmt":"2023-02-08T11:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/?p=9263"},"modified":"2026-01-20T20:04:27","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T12:04:27","slug":"margin-of-safety-formula","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/blog\/margin-of-safety-formula\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7528\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645Margin of Safety\u516c\u5f0f\u589e\u52a0\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u83b7\u5229"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u8981\u8d81\u80a1\u4ef7\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u83b7\u5229\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u6bd4\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645margin of safety\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4e70\u5230\u8d5a\u5230<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6700\u540e\u5206\u4eab\u73b0\u5728\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u8d81\u80a1\u4ef7\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u65f6\u8d2d\u4e70\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u7968<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645margin of safety\u662f\u964d\u4f4e\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8d44\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e2a\u80a1\u7968\u5408\u7406\u4ef7\u503c\u548c\u8d2d\u4e70\u4ef7\u683c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u636e\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u4e4b\u7236Benjamin Graham\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u900f\u8fc7\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8d22\u52a1\u8d44\u6599\u8ba1\u7b97\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c<\/a>\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u964d\u4f4e\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5982\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u80a1\u4ef7\u6bd4\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u8fd8\u4f4e\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u591f\u5927\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e70\u8fdb\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u5f53\u80a1\u7968\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u5927\u4e8e\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u62e5\u6709\u6b63\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645 = \u80a1\u7968\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c \u2013 \u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u52a0\u901f\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ef7\u503c\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u659c\u6760\u6295\u8d44\u8fbe\u4eba\u7684\u9009\u80a1\u795e\u5668\u5916\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2aUpside\u7684\u6570\u636e\u8ba1\u7b97\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Upside = (Fair Value \u2013 \u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c) \/ \u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c x 100%<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Upside\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8f7b\u6613\u4e86\u89e3\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30<\/a>\uff0c\u53ea\u8981Upside\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u5c31\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u591a\u5927\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u6bd4\u8f83\u5408\u7406\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u56e0\u4e3aFair Value\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u80fd\u7528\u6765\u964d\u4f4e\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5f53\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u548cUpside\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8d8a\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6295\u8d44\u4f1a\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u901a\u5e38\u53ea\u8981Upside\u8d85\u8fc750%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u4e70\u8fdb\u80a1\u7968<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u659c\u6760\u6295\u8d44\u8fbe\u4eba\u4f53\u9a8c<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u62e5\u6709\u826f\u597d\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u7968<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u4f7f\u7528\u4ef7\u503c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6e05\u5355<\/a>\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u627e\u5230\u770b\u6da8\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u7528\u81f3\u5c1150%\u7684Upside\u7b5b\u9009\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u77ac\u95f4\u627e\u5230\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u4f4e\u4f30\u3001\u62e5\u6709\u826f\u597d\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"50%\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b\"
\u7b5b\u9009\u8d85\u8fc750% Upside\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u6211\u4eec\u7528Upside\u6392\u5e8f\u7b5b\u9009\u8fc7\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7f8e\u80a1\u6e05\u5355\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4ece189%\u523050%\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b\u7684\u770b\u6da8\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
\u80a1\u7968<\/th>\u516c\u53f8<\/th>\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7<\/th>\u5408\u7406\u4ef7<\/th>\u4e0a\u6da8\u6f5c\u529b<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
NSANY<\/td>Nissan Motor Co Ltd<\/td>$7.17<\/td>$20.75<\/td>189.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VLKAF<\/td>Volkswagen AG<\/td>$180.25<\/td>$382.68<\/td>112.31%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VFC<\/td>VF Corp<\/td>$30.73<\/td>$60.59<\/td>97.17%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PK<\/td>Park Hotels & Resorts Inc<\/td>$14.44<\/td>$27.87<\/td>93.01%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LNC<\/td>Lincoln National Corp<\/td>$35.80<\/td>$66.97<\/td>87.07%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PARA<\/td>Paramount Global<\/td>$24.55<\/td>$45.39<\/td>84.89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BAX<\/td>Baxter International Inc<\/td>$46.65<\/td>$84.44<\/td>81.01%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IIPR<\/td>Innovative Industrial Properties Inc<\/td>$93.13<\/td>$166.13<\/td>78.39%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GT<\/td>Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co<\/td>$11.50<\/td>$20.38<\/td>77.22%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BDN<\/td>Brandywine Realty Trust<\/td>$7.10<\/td>$12.35<\/td>73.94%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FSNUY<\/td>Fresenius SE & Co KGaA<\/td>$7.27<\/td>$12.47<\/td>71.53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KRC<\/td>Kilroy Realty Corp<\/td>$40.92<\/td>$69.46<\/td>69.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SAM<\/td>Boston Beer Co Inc<\/td>$402.99<\/td>$665.48<\/td>65.14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PYPL<\/td>PayPal Holdings Inc<\/td>$85.49<\/td>$133.68<\/td>56.37%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GOOGL<\/td>Alphabet Inc<\/td>$104.74<\/td>$161.80<\/td>54.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KSS<\/td>Kohl's Corp<\/td>$34.93<\/td>$53.61<\/td>53.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LUV<\/td>Southwest Airlines Co<\/td>$36.47<\/td>$55.59<\/td>52.43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u524d\u8fd8\u662f\u8981\u591a\u505a\u529f\u8bfe\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u516c\u53f8\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u4e70\u5230\u4ef7\u503c\u9677\u9631<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5f00\u7bb1\u659c\u6760\u6295\u8d44\u8fbe\u4eba\u51fb\u8d25\u6807\u666e500\u6307\u6570450%\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645margin of safety\u53ef\u7528\u6765\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d2d\u4e70\u80a1\u4ef7\u7684\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u4e70\u5230\u8d5a\u5230\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u8fb9\u9645\uff0c\u8ba9\u4f60\u8d81\u80a1\u4ef7\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u65f6\u8d2d\u4e70\u4ef7\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9266,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"plain-container","ast-site-content-layout":"normal-width-container","site-content-style":"unboxed","site-sidebar-style":"unboxed","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":"5"},"categories":[3],"tags":[56,12,64,59,11],"class_list":["post-9263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-cn","tag-en","tag-es","tag-stocks","tag-tw"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9263"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9263\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14257,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9263\/revisions\/14257"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/slashtraders.com\/cn\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}